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聽力|精讀|翻譯|詞組

Finance and economics|Buttonwood

財經 | 梧桐樹專欄

英文部分選自經濟學人20220910財經版塊

Finance and economics|Buttonwood
財經 | 梧桐樹專欄

So near to a good year
那麼近，又那麼遠

Emerging-market stocks are struggling in an intangible world
新興市場股市在「無形」的世界裡掙扎前行

Halfway through the year, as commodity prices soared and stockmarkets plunged, it looked as if emerging-market stocks might do something they had managed only once in the past decade: to beat the returns of American ones. Two months on and the hope is gone. A small bounce in rich-world share prices means emerging-market underperformance will probably continue.

今年上半年，隨着大宗商品價格飆升和股市暴跌，新興市場股票似乎有望近十年裡第二次在回報率上高出美股一頭。兩個月過去，希望破滅了。富裕國家股價的小幅反彈意味着新興市場的表現可能會持續低迷。

America’s interest-rate rises—and the expectation of more to come this year—have not helped emerging-market economies, especially those with large import bills and dollar-denominated debts. Over the past decade, though, the performance of the dollar has been mixed and interest rates low. In the same period, the msci em index has returned just 2.9% a year, against 9.5% for rich-world stocks.

美國利率的上升以及今年還會繼續加息的預期並沒有給新興市場經濟體帶來幫助，尤其是那些持有大量進口賬單和以美元計價債務的經濟體。不過，在過去十年中，美元表現不一，利率保持低位，同期MSCI新興市場指數的年回報率僅為2.9%，而發達國家股票的回報率為9.5%。

注釋:
MSCI，就是Morgan Stanley Capital International的縮寫，是一家美國的指數編制公司，中文名叫明晟公司，總部在紐約。MSCI提供全球指數和相關衍生金融產品，其MSCI指數被投資者廣泛引用。超過90%的國際機構股票資產基於MSCI指數。MSCI新興市場指數主要面向新興國家的資本市場，涵蓋了5個美洲市場、10個歐洲、中東和非洲市場以及8個亞洲市場等23個新興市場，亞洲的新興市場占該指數的70.25%。

A big problem is the growing gap between emerging-market and rich-world profits. In the heyday of emerging-market returns, before the global financial crisis of 2007-09, margins for the two indices were similar. But unlike American stocks, emerging-market profits never recovered. Forward margins—net profits expected by analysts this year and next—sit at 7.5% in emerging markets, compared with 12.8% in America and 8.9% in the euro zone. The gap is the widest it has been this century.

一大難題是新興市場和富裕國家之間的利潤差距日益拉大。在新興市場回報率的全盛時期，即2007-09年全球金融危機之前，二者的回報率相差無幾。但是不同於美國股市的公司，新興市場歷經金融危機之後利潤不復從前。新興市場的遠期利潤率（分析師預估的今明兩年的淨利潤）為 7.5%，而美國為12.8%，歐元區為8.9%。該差異為本世紀以來最大。

注釋：
heyday：Someone'sheydayis the time when they are most powerful, successful, or popular. 全盛時期

Several factors explain this. For commodity-exporting countries like Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico, enormous margins before the collapse of Lehman Brothers reflected sky-high prices of commodities as varied as soyabeans, oil, coal and nickel, rather than good management. Since then, prices have come back down to earth. Even at the Bloomberg Commodity Index’s recent peak, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it sat 43% below its high in that period.

多種因素促成了這一局面。就印度尼西亞、巴西和墨西哥等大宗商品出口國而言，雷曼兄弟（ Lehman Brothers ）公司破產前的一段時間裡，市場產出的巨額利潤並非通過良好的管理得來，而是源自於大豆、石油、煤炭和鎳等多種大宗商品一飛沖天的價格。而自那以後，價格已大幅回落。即使是俄烏衝突後彭博大宗商品指數（Bloomberg Commodity Index）的峰值，與金融危機前的最高點相比也低了43%。

More than a fifth of the msci em Index is made up of state-owned enterprises, which are lumbered with responsibilities beyond profits. Many are also in energy and finance, which have had a poor decade. In the ten years to the end of June, state-owned firms in the index offered annual returns of 2.6%, against the 4.2% offered by their private counterparts.

MSCI新興市場指數成份股中超五分之一是國有企業，他們除了創造利潤外還背負着其他責任。其中許多企業來自於能源和金融行業——兩大「頹」了十年的行業。截至六月底，過去十年間，該指數中的國有企業年回報率為2.6%，而私企為4.2%。

The change in which countries make up the index, something investors hoped would give them more exposure to fast-growing economies, has done little to help. In 2005 four markets—Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Taiwan—each made up larger shares of the index than China. Now, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and the mainland account for a third of the index, by far the largest share.

投資者們曾希望指數中各國所占份額的消長能讓他們獲得增速最快經濟體市場更高的敞口，然而這一變化作用甚微。2005年，巴西、南非、韓國和中國台灣這四個市場在該指數所占份額均大於種花家。如今，在香港和內地上市的種花家股票占該指數的三分之一，占有最大份額，其他新興市場難以望其項背。

But despite economic growth, Chinese profits remain depressed. The msci China index sits, astonishingly, below its peak in dollar terms, which it hit in 2007. In 2013 Yu Yongding, then of the China Society of World Economics, a think-tank, said that the profit on a few tonnes of steel was 「just about enough to buy a lollipop」. Overcapacity in crucial Chinese industries, which have been flooded with investment, is still a problem.

然而儘管經濟增長迅猛，種花家市場的利潤卻依然低迷。令人驚訝的是，以美元計，當前的MSCI中國指數甚至還低於2007年的峰值水平。2013年，時任中國世界經濟學會會長的余永定表示，幾噸鋼鐵的利潤「剛好購買一根棒棒糖」。種花家被過度投資的關鍵行業的產能過剩，現下仍是一個棘手的問題。

Will profits grow? it outsourcing offers a chance to pair the traditional emerging-market strength of lower wages with an increasingly digital global economy. But digitisation is also reason to be sceptical of an emerging-market resurgence. The rise of firms with large stocks of intangible assets, such as software and intellectual property, explains much of the increase in profits in the rich world, and America in particular. One estimate suggests that intangible assets, mostly undisclosed, were worth 90% of s& p 500’s market value in 2020, up from 50% in 1990.

利潤會增長嗎？IT外包提供了一個機會，讓傳統新興市場的低工資優勢能與日益數字化的全球經濟相結合。但數字化也是我們對新興市場復甦持懷疑態度的理由之一。擁有大量無形資產（如軟件和知識產權）的公司的崛起，在很大程度上拉動了發達國家，尤其是美國公司利潤的增長。一項估算顯示，2020年，無形資產（大多數都未被公司披露）在標普500指數總市值中所占的比例由1990年的50%增長到了如今的90%。

Developing economies spend far less on r&d. Of those typically included in emerging-market indices, only South Korea and Taiwan surpass American r&d spending, which sits at 3.5% of gdp. The equivalent figure in China is 2.4%, and the government’s campaign against the country’s most successful consumer-tech firms—like Didi, in ride-sharing, and Alibaba, in e-commerce—bodes ill for intangible-focused firms. According to the World Bank, r&d investment runs to less than 1% of gdp in India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa.

發展中國家在研究與開發（Research and deveopment）上的投入遠遠低於發達國家。在新興市場指數中典型的國家和地區中，只有韓國和中國台灣有着超過美國的R&D投入（美國投入占其GDP的3.5%）。種花家R&D投入僅占GDP的2.4%，並且當局對於對頭部的科技公司的一系列動作，比如didi（出行類）和ali（電商類），對偏重無形資產的公司來說是個壞兆頭。根據世界銀行的統計，R&D投資在印度，印度尼西亞，墨西哥，和南非占比GDP均小於1%。

注釋：
R&D：研究與開發（Research and deveopment 的縮寫）。Research and development: the part of a business that tries to find ways to improve existing products, and to develop new ones.

Firms that invest in intangibles are often found in bustling cities, of which emerging markets have no shortage. But they also need reliable governance and legal systems, so that investments can be protected from copycats. Openness to foreign expertise and cross-border collaboration are also crucial. Given the absence of these conditions in many developing economies, it may be a while until emerging-market returns, and thus the performance of emerging-market stocks, match those in the rich world.

投資無形資產的公司通常出現在熙熙攘攘的大城市中。倒不是新興市場中沒有這樣的城市，只是可靠的管理體系和完善的法律體系同樣重要：只有這樣，才可以保護投資成果不受「學人精」的侵害。對國外知識技能持開放態度和積極開展跨境合作也至關重要。正因為很多發展中國家仍然缺乏這些條件，或許新興市場的回報率和新興市場股票的表現要經過較長一段時間才能趕上發達國家。

翻譯組：
Ellie，女，金融碩士，經濟學人粉絲
Vivifang，女，外幣債券交易員，經濟學人粉絲
Vic，男，金融碩，喜歡西方金融史，喜歡讀書，喜歡文化
Summer，女，QE在職，夢想能仗走天涯 翻譯/音樂/健康

校對組：
Ithil，男， 胡辣湯愛好者
Emily，女，食物鏈底端金融民工，經濟學人粉絲
Hannah，女,愛讀財經的金融小白 經濟學人唯粉

3



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