鑽石舞台

中英文字幕

In 1985, when at age 22, I became the World Chess Champion after beating Anatoly Karpov. Earlier that year, I played what is called simultaneous exhibition against 32 of the world's best chess-playing machines in Hamburg, Germany. I won all the games, and then it was not considered much of a surprise that I could beat 32 computers at the same time. To me, that was the golden age. Machines were weak, and my hair was strong.

1985年，當時22歲的我擊敗了阿納托利·卡爾波夫，成為國際象棋世界冠軍。這一年的早些時候，在德國漢堡，我和32台世界頂尖級別的電腦進行了一場國際象棋「車輪戰」。我贏得了所有的對弈，能夠同時打敗32台電腦。我認為這是我的黃金時代。那會兒的電腦實力還弱，我的頭髮還挺茂盛。

Just 12 years later, I was fighting for my life against just one computer in a match called by the cover of "Newsweek" "The Brain's Last Stand." No pressure.From mythology to science fiction, human versus machine has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death.John Henry, called the steel-driving man in the 19th century African American folk legend, was pitted in a race against a steam-powered hammer bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.

就在12年後，我拼勁全力與一台電腦對弈，這場對弈，《新聞周刊》的封面報道稱之為「人腦的背水一戰」。別有壓力。從神話到科幻，人類對弈電腦經常被形容為生死攸關的問題。19世紀非洲裔美國人，民間傳說中的鋼鐵勇士。在開鑿山石隧道時與一台蒸汽動力錘進行了生死較量。

John Henry's legend is a part of a long historical narrative pitting humanity versus technology. And this competitive rhetoric is standard now. We are in a race against the machines, in a fight or even in a war. Jobs are being killed off. People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth. It's enough to think that the movies like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix" are nonfiction. There are very few instances of an arena where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms with a computer or a robot.

約翰·亨利的傳奇故事是歷史長河中人類與科技對弈的一部分。而現在這種對弈已是司空見慣了。我們正在與機器競爭，這是一場對抗，更可能是一場戰爭。工作機會正在消失。人們被機器所取代，就好像他們正從地球上消失。這一切足以讓我們認為電影《終結者》和《黑客帝國》並不是虛構。在很少的情況下才能看到人類的身體和腦子可以與電腦或是機器人平分秋色。

Actually, I wish there were a few more. Instead, it was my blessing and my curse to literally become the proverbial man in the man versus machine competition that everybody is still talking about. In the most famous human-machine competition since John Henry, I played two matches against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue. Nobody remembers that I won the first match.In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York. But I guess that's fair.

事實上，我希望這種情況能更多些。然而，我成為人們仍在談論的人類與機器的對抗中的那個傳奇人物，這既是我的福祉，也是對我的詛咒。以來的人與機器的較量中，我和IBM的超級電腦深藍，對弈過兩次。沒人記得我贏了第一場比賽。那是在費城。也就是我輸掉紐約那場的前一年。但我覺得這也沒什麼。

There is no day in history, special calendar entry for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay made it to the top.And in 1997, I was still the world champion when chess computers finally came of age. I was Mt. Everest, and Deep Blue reached the summit. I should say of course, not that Deep Blue did it, but its human creators -- Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu. Hats off to them.As always, machine's triumph was a human triumph, something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations.

埃德蒙·希拉里爵士和丹增·諾蓋成功登頂珠峰前，歷史上從未有一天是為登頂失敗的人而記載的特殊的日子。在1997年會下棋的電腦問世之時，我仍然是世界冠軍。我就是那珠穆朗瑪峰，而深藍成功登頂。我應該說，當然了，並不是深藍成功了，而是創造深藍的人——Anantharaman，Campbell，Hoane，Hsu。向他們脫帽致敬。一如既往，機器的勝利就是人類的勝利，當人類被自己的創造超越後，這一點就常常被遺忘了。

Deep Blue was victorious, but was it intelligent? No, no it wasn't, at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science had hoped. It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force, once hardware got fast enough and algorithms got smart enough. Although by the definition of the output, grandmaster-level chess, Deep Blue was intelligent.But even at the incredible speed, 200 million positions per second, Deep Blue's method provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence.

深藍取得了勝利，但是，是它聰明嗎？不，並不是，至少不是像AlanTuring和其他計算科學的奠基人希望的那樣。事實證明，一旦電腦軟件運行的夠快，算法變得靈活起來，象棋的下法就可以被輕而易舉地算出。儘管按照輸出的定義，按大師級別來算，深藍算得上是高手。但是即使以每秒2億次的驚人計算速度，深藍的方法也只探索了人類智慧謎題中的一丁點兒。

Soon, machines will be taxi drivers and doctors and professors, but will they be "intelligent?" I would rather leave these definitions to the philosophers and to the dictionary. What really matters is how we humans feel about living and working with these machines. When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February, I had been the world champion for more than 10 years, and I had played 182 world championship games and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions.I knew what to expect from my opponents and what to expect from myself.

很快，機器就可以成為出租車司機、醫生、教授，但是他們會變得「有智慧」嗎？我寧願將這些定義留給哲學家或者是字典。真正重要的是，我們人類與電腦機器共存會是怎樣的感受。當我在1996年2月第一次見到深藍時，我已經當了十多年的世界冠軍，我參加了182場世界錦標賽，並在其他比賽中與其他頂級選手打了數百場比賽。我知道我的對手會是什麼樣子，他們也知道我的情況。

I was used to measure their moves and to gauge their emotional state by watching their body language and looking into their eyes. And then I sat across the chessboard from Deep Blue. I immediately sensed something new, something unsettling. You might experience a similar feeling the first time you ride in a driverless car or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work. But when I sat at that first game, I couldn't be sure what is this thing capable of. Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily. I lost that game.

我習慣於通過觀察他們的肢體語言和眼神，考量他們的棋步，摸索他們的心態。而當我坐在深藍的對面時，我立刻感受到了莫名的氣息，有些不安。你可能有過類似的感受，當你第一次坐進一輛無人駕駛汽車，或者是你的電計算機老闆在工作中派給你一個任務。在第一場對弈時，我無法確定，這東西能夠做什麼。技術可以跨越式前進，IBM花了重金。我輸掉了那場比賽。

And I couldn't help wondering, might it be invincible?Was my beloved game of chess over? These were human doubts, human fears, and the only thing I knew for sure was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all. I fought back after this devastating blow to win the first match, but the writing was on the wall.I eventually lost to the machine but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry who won but died with his hammer in his hand. It turned out that the world of chess still wanted to have a human chess champion.

我不禁在想，它會不會是無敵的？我深愛的象棋生涯完蛋了嗎？這些都是人類的懷疑，人類的恐懼，而我唯一確定的是，我的對手深藍根本沒有這樣的擔憂。在這場慘敗後我捲土重來，贏下了第一場比賽，但很明顯，我註定會失敗。我最終輸給了機器，但我沒有遭受約翰·亨利那樣的命運，這位鑿山工贏得了比賽，但卻丟了性命，死的時候手裡還攥着鐵錘。但是象棋世界還是想要人類象棋冠軍。

And even today, when a free chess app on the latest mobile phone is stronger than Deep Blue, people are still playing chess, even more than ever before.Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game that could be conquered by the machine, and they were wrong, proven wrong, but doomsaying has always been a popular pastime when it comes to technology. What I learned from my own experience is that we must face our fears if we want to get the most out of our technology, and we must conquer those fears if we want to get the best out of our humanity.

不過即便是今天，智能手機中的免費象棋軟件都比深藍還要聰明，人們依然在下象棋，對它的興趣不減反增。悲觀者說沒有人會再碰可以被機器打敗的遊戲，而他們錯了，事實已經證明了，但是一談起科技，末日說一直是很流行的消遣說法。我從自身的經歷中所學到就是，如果我們要充分地利用科技，就要面對我們的恐懼，如果我們要最大化地激發人類的潛能，就必須戰勝我們的恐懼感。

While licking my wounds, I got a lot of inspiration from my battles against Deep Blue. As the old Russian saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them. Then I thought, what if I could play with a computer -- together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths, human intuition plus machine's calculation, human strategy, machine tactics, human experience, machine's memory.Could it be the perfect game ever played? My idea came to life in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player.

當我自省時，我從和深藍的對戰中獲得了很多靈感。正如古老的俄羅斯諺語所說：如果你不能打敗他們，就加入他們。後來，我就想如果我能和電腦合作，結合我們的優點，人類的直覺和電腦的計算，人類的策略和電腦的戰術，人類的經驗和電腦的記憶。會不會打一場最完美的比賽呢？1998年，在一個高階象棋賽中我的想法實現了，我利用人機結合的方式跟另一位頂尖棋手進行了對弈。

But in this first experiment, we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively. Advanced Chess found its home on the internet, and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament produced a revelation. A team of grandmasters and top machines participated, but the winners were not grandmasters, not a supercomputer. The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players operating three ordinary PCs at the same time. Their skill of coaching their machines effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge of their grandmaster opponents and much greater computational power of others.

但是在第一次試驗里，我們都沒能有效的結合人和機器的技能。高階象棋發跡於網絡，在2005年，一個被稱為自由式象棋競標賽的比賽誕生了。一隊頂尖高手和頂級電腦參賽了，但是冠軍並不是頂尖高手，也不是超級電腦。冠軍是一對同時在操作三台普通電腦的業餘美國棋手。他們有效操作電腦的技能勝過了他們的大師級對手超高的象棋知識，也勝過了電腦更強大的計算能力。

And I reached this formulation. A weak human player plus a machine plus a better process is superior to a very powerful machine alone. but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player plus machine and an inferior process. This convinced me that we would need better interfaces to help us coach our machines towards more useful intelligence. Human plus machine isn't the future, it's the present. Everybody that's used online translation to get the gist of a news article from a foreign newspaper, knowing its far from perfect.

我寫出了這個公式。一個不強的人類棋手加上一台機器，加上一個更好的處理器要好過一台非常強大的機器本身，但更值得注意的是，也會超過一個強大的人類棋手加上機器，和一個較差的處理器。這讓我確信我們需要更好的界面去幫助我們的電腦學習，來實現更有用的智能。人類與電腦的結合併不是將來時，而是現在時。所有使用在線翻譯來了解外國報紙新聞概要的人都知道這些軟件遠遠不夠完美。

Then we use our human experience to make sense out of that, and then the machine learns from our corrections. This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis. The machine crunches data, calculates probabilities, gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent, making it easier for analysis and decision-making of the human party. But you are not going to send your kids to school in a self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy, even with 99 percent. So we need a leap forward to add a few more crucial decimal places.

然後我們結合我們的人類經驗讓這變得合理，而電腦從我們的更改中學習升級。這種模式廣泛應用於醫療診斷，證券分析。機器分析數據計算出概率，完成了百分之八，九十的工作，使得分析和決策對人類來說更加簡單。但是你不會用準確度90%，甚至99%的無人駕駛汽車把你的孩子送到學校去。所以我們需要跨越式前進，提高準確度。

Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue, second match, this sensational "The Brain's Last Stand" headline has become commonplace as intelligent machines move in every sector, seemingly every day. But unlike in the past, when machines replaced farm animals, manual labor, now they are coming after people with college degrees and political influence. And as someone who fought machines and lost, I am here to tell you this is excellent, excellent news. Eventually, every profession will have to feel these pressures or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress.

在我和深藍對弈二十年之後，第二場比賽，這個聳人聽聞的標題，「人腦的背水一戰」已經變得司空見慣了，因為智能機器在每個領域，每一天都在工作。但與過去不同，那時機器替代的是農場動物，勞工，現在它們的目標是替代有大學學位和政治影響力的人們。作為曾經對抗過機器而且失敗了的人，我在這裡告訴你們，這是非常非常棒的消息。最終，每個職業都不得不感受這種壓力，否則就意味着人類已經停止前進了。

We don't get to choose when and where technological progress stops. We cannot slow down. In fact, we have to speed up. Our technology excels at removing difficulties and uncertainties from our lives, and so we must seek out ever more difficult, ever more uncertain challenges. Machines have calculations. We have understanding. Machines have instructions. We have purpose. Machines have objectivity. We have passion.We should not worry about what our machines can do today.

技術進步的腳步何時何地停止，我們無從選擇。我們無法放緩它的腳步。現實是，我們要加速前進。科學技術擅長解決我們生活中的困難和不確定性，所以我們必須面對更加困難，更加不確定的挑戰。機器可以計算。而我們有理解力。機器遵從指令。我們擁有目標。機器具有客觀性。我們有激情。我們不應該為機器現在可以做什麼而感到擔心。

Instead, we should worry about what they still cannot do today, because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines to turn our grandest dreams into reality. And if we fail, if we fail, it's not because our machines are too intelligent, or not intelligent enough.If we fail, it's because we grew complacent and limited our ambitions. Our humanity is not defined by any skill, like swinging a hammer or even playing chess. There's one thing only a human can do. That's dream. So let us dream big. Thank you.

相反，我們應該為它們今日仍不能做的感到擔心，因為我們需要新的智能機器的幫助，來實現我們宏偉的夢想。如果我們失敗的話，如果我們失敗，不是因為我們的機器太聰明了，或不夠聰明。如果我們失敗了，是因為我們變得自滿，限制了我們的理想抱負。我們人類不由任何技能定義，就像敲錘子或是下象棋。有一件事情只有人類能做。那就是夢想。讓我們的夢想更遠大一些吧。謝謝。