鑽石舞台

周二，十年債收益率還在走高，漲到了2.913%。國債收益率上漲，科技股就遭殃。NFLX在財報暴雷之下跌了20%，TSLA周三也要公布財報。

NFLX目前的行情不適合抄底，周三有可能繼續下跌。之前最深的時候跌了26%，前低是2019年的252，因此想要抄底的可以等待這個點位的支撐，前面的支撐都破了。

科技股將會繼續承壓，這意味着市場對科技股的預期會很高，因此後市TSLA、AAPL等都可以看空。NQ雖然周二反彈了，但是小周期的反彈是不靠譜的。且不說NFLX下行對NQ的影響，NQ收盤前拉到的高點也就是小雙頂裡面lower high的位置，並不是真正的突破。所以震盪行情是已經形成了。底部方面，上周跌下來的這種修正行情的底部是非常不靠譜的。因為它刺穿了斐波那契的大周期78.6的區間，後面反彈形成的震盪區間，一旦財報不好，是很容易跌破的。此外NFLX的財報證明了消費者信心的缺乏，高通脹對消費的影響很大。這樣相關的股票也是表現不好的，比如DIS，還沒等到財報就開始率先回調。AMZN是另外一支可能會受到影響的股票。

WTI的原油價格之前給到的目標是110美元，周二剛好也是衝到了110然後回調。從一浪一浪越走越低的情況看，以原油為首的商品市場可能又要進入一波回調區間。4月22日要美國開始禁止俄羅斯原油的進口，可能還會對原油價格造成波動。長期來說，Jackson老師認為原油價格會保持在100美元左右，操作思路就是低吸高拋，不要長期持有帶槓桿的能源ETF和合約。

VIX也有橫盤的跡象，投機的話可以嘗試一下。因為之後還有FOMC、財報，都是看跌的。特別是標普的各板塊如果再來一波行情，VIX可能會有一個小行情。但是不建議長期持有期權，作為對沖最好。

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