鑽石舞台

A few months ago, my daughter asked me a very simple question. Who are your heroes, dad? I said: Well, besides my father... hoping she would get the hint.One of my big heroes is Malcom McLean. I realize that Malcom McLean is not really known on social media today. But, in 1955, McLean invented a metal box that changed the world: the shipping container. That invention reduced the costs of shipping cargo by more than 90 percent.

幾個月前，我的女兒問了我一個很簡單的問題。爸爸，你心目中的英雄是誰？我說：好吧，除了我父親……希望她能理解這個提示。我心目中最偉大的英雄之一是馬爾康·馬克林。我發現馬爾康·馬克林在現在的社交媒體上不怎麼為人所知。但是1955年，馬克林發明了一個改變世界的鐵盒子：運輸集裝箱。這項發明減少了超過90%的貨物運輸成本。

And as a consequence...global trade increased 200 times and lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty by connecting them and their goods to global markets at very, very low cost. I'm sure McLean's invention started with a big dream to transform the transportation industry. And I know it took a lot of attention to details to change all of the equipment of all of the transportation companies worldwide to benefit from this container. To me, that is what leadership is all about.

因此……國際貿易增長了200倍，帶領幾億人走出貧困，讓他們和他們的商品以非常非常低的成本，走向世界。我相信馬克林的發明始於一個偉大的夢想，致力於改變運輸行業。我知道這需要花費很多心思關注細枝末節，為了從集裝箱獲益，而更換全球所有運輸公司的所有設備。對我來說，這就是領導力。

Dreams that inspire people to pursue opportunities that may seem impossible, and details. Because without attention to the details, the dream will just stay a dream. McLean's dream was to transform the cargo transportation industry by making it affordable.It is time to transform it again. We urgently need to make it sustainable. More than 9 percent of CO2 emissions globally come from transporting goods around the world. So what is the dream?

這樣的夢想，激勵人們追求看似不可能的機會和細節。因為如果沒有對細節的關注，夢想終究是夢想。馬克林的夢想是通過降低貨運成本，改變整個貨運行業。是時候再轉型一次了。我們急需讓貨運變得可持續。全球超過9%的碳排放來自全球的貨物運輸。所以夢想是什麼？

In 2018, the management team of AP Moller - Maersk, the global shipping company I lead as a chairman,made a commitment to make the company carbon-neutral by 2050. For some people, 2050 sounded like a long time into the future. But in fact, this was a very ambitious dream for a shipping company. To be carbon-neutral by 2050, we needed to invent a zero-carbon container vessel by 2030. Because then, it would take roughly 20 years to replace all of the 750 vessels that we operate.

2018年，馬士基集團的管理層，我擔任董事長的全球貨運公司，作出了公司將在2050年前達到碳中和的承諾。對於有些人來說，2050年聽起來是很遙遠的未來。但是實際上，對於一個貨運公司來言，這是一個很有野心的夢想。要在2050年前達到碳中和，我們需要在2030年前發明一種零碳的集裝箱船。因為在此之後，要花大約20年替換我們運營的所有總計750艘集裝箱船。

So the dream was truly big and really inspiring. But to be honest, in 2018, we did not know how to do this. We had to work hard on the details. Now at that time, we had already focused a lot of attention on reducing CO2 emissions from shipping. In fact, we had achieved more than 40 percent reduction per container moved since 2008. That was done by building bigger and more efficient vessels, and by slow steaming, which means sailing the vessel slower so it consumes less fuel. But we were reaching the limit.

所以這個夢想真的很宏大又鼓舞人心。但是說實話，在2018年，我們不知道該怎麼做。我們要在細節上下功夫。此前，我們已經花了很多精力減少貨運的碳排放。實際上，從2008年以來，我們已經達成了讓運輸單個集裝箱所帶來的碳排放減少40%。我們通過建造更大、更高效的集裝箱，減速航行，即通過減緩船隻航行速度來減少燃料消耗，達到這個結果。但是我們到達極限了。

Obviously, you could sail so slow that you don't sail at all. And you would save all of the CO2 emissions. But that didn't seem like a good solution. Now some of the first humans who sailed the big oceans, the people from Polynesia, had figured out zero-carbon shipping by using sails. And it is true that sails can reduce the fuel consumption somewhat. But it cannot deliver on the efficiency and accuracy needed in today's global supply chains. Another alternative is batteries. But for the large vessels sailing the big oceans, the batteries would take up 60 percent of the capacity of the vessel.

顯然，你可以減速到根本不航行。這樣可以完全不排放二氧化碳。但是聽起來這不像是個好方法。最先在大海上航行的是波利尼西亞人，他們發現可以用帆達到零碳航行。帆確實可以降低燃料消耗。但是它無法達到如今全球供應鏈所需的效率和精確性。另一個方法是用電池。但是對於在大海上航行的巨型集裝箱船，電池會占用船隻容量的60%。

Some shipping companies started ordering vessels based on LNG, liquid natural gas. LNG is a fossil fuel. And it will never lead to zero-carbon shipping.Slow steaming, sails, batteries, LNG, none of it would make us be carbon-neutral. So what else? Well, we knew we had to look for other solutions. And we realized we couldn't do it alone. To help us find a solution, our main shareholder, the A.P. Moller Foundation, donated 400 million Danish krone to create a global center for zero-carbon shipping in Copenhagen.

有些貨運公司開始訂購液化天然氣運行的集裝箱船。液化天然氣是化石燃料。它永遠不可能達成零碳貨運。減速航行、帆、電池、液化天然氣，以上都不會讓我們達到碳中和。所以還有什麼呢？嗯，我們知道必須要去找別的解決方法，也意識到我們不能獨自完成這個任務。為了找到一個解決方案，我們的大股東，A.P.穆勒基金會捐贈了4億丹麥克朗，為了在哥本哈根建立零碳貨運的全球中心。

That center would bring together companies and specialists from all over the world, not just from the transportation industry, but also from energy, from chemicals and engineering. And now, less than three years after our big dream, we have found the solution.

It is called power-to-X. Now power-to-X is not a new technology, nor did we invent it. It is a combination of known chemical processes to convert green electricity to green fuel. First, you convert the green electricity from solar or wind to green hydrogen. That is done through electrolysis.

該中心會匯集來自全世界的公司和專家，不僅來自於運輸行業，還會來自能源、化學和工程行業。現在，距離提出我們宏大的夢想不到3年時間，我們已經找到了答案。它叫做Power-to-X（電力多元化轉換）。Power-to-X不是一項新技術，也不是我們發明的。它是一些能夠將清潔電力轉換成清潔燃料的化學過程的合集。首先，將太陽能或風能產生的清潔電力轉換成清潔氫氣。由電解技術完成。

And then, the green hydrogen can be converted to various types of green fuels through chemical processes. The benefit of power-to-X is that it produces a green fuel that is liquid at normal temperature, and can be used in a combustion engine. So instead of spending 20 years to replace all of our 750 vessels and create a big pile of waste, we believe we can retrofit existing vessels by adding a combustion engine designed for green fuel, and with that, achieve zero-carbon shipping much, much earlier.

然後，清潔氫氣通過一些化學反應，被轉換成各式清潔燃料。Power-to-X帶來的好處是它能產生一種常溫呈液態的清潔燃料，且適用於內燃機。所以與其花二十年替換我們所有總計750艘集裝箱船，同時產生一堆廢棄物，我們認為不如翻新現有的船隻，安裝為清潔燃料設計的內燃機，藉此提早很多達到零碳運輸。

On top of that, power-to-X is actually a very nice solution for one of the biggest problems in renewable energy systems: the storage problem. When there's too much wind and sun, you can convert the unused electricity to a liquid green fuel that can be used in many different industries. So what are the challenges?Well, I often hear the same concern when it comes to sustainability. Can we afford it? And yes, it is true that this green fuel is more expensive than the bunker fuel we use today. In fact, it is two to three times more expensive with current technology.

除此之外，Power-to-X其實是一個很好的解決方案，它能解決再生能源系統最大的問題之一：存儲問題。有大量風力和太陽能時，可以把閒置的電力轉換成液態的清潔燃料，用於許多不同的行業。所以有些什麼挑戰呢？嗯，談到可持續，我總是聽到同樣的憂慮。我們負擔得起嗎？說得沒錯，清潔燃料確實比我們現在用的船用燃油貴。實際上清潔燃料比現有科技貴2到3倍。

Like always, we need to scale these solutions to get the cost down. But even if the green fuel would be two times more expensive than the bunker fuel. It should not be a showstopper, come on. Even at that price, a pair of sneakers, transported from Asia to the US or Europe, would only cost five cents more. So for me, the argument around affordability is just a bad excuse for not making the necessary decisions and investments.And if we had a price on CO2, let's say around 150 dollars, the affordability argument would disappear.

我們需要像以往一樣，通過擴大這些方案的應用來降低成本。但是就算清潔燃料比燃油貴兩倍，也不該是我們放棄它的藉口。即使是這個價格，一雙球鞋從亞洲運往美國或歐洲，也只是多花了5分錢。所以對我來說，關於負擔能力的言論只是一個壞藉口，是為了避免做出必要的決定和投資。假設我們給二氧化碳定價，大概150美元，負擔能力的說法就會消失。

I urge governments to show leadership and implement a global price on CO2 now. Because with that, we could focus all of our attention on the real issue, which is not the price, but the scale. At Maersk, I asked the following question. How much green electricity do we need to fuel all of our 750 vessels with green fuel? Our fleet today consumes 10 million tonnes of bunker oil. To replace that with green fuel, we estimate that we need 220,000 gigawatt-hours of green electricity. That is the equivalent of 10 percent of the installed base of solar and wind in 2019.

我敦促政府展現出領導力，立即為二氧化碳制定全球價格。因為這樣，我們才能關注真正的問題，關注規模而不是價格。在馬士基集團，我問了這個問題。要給我們全部750艘船提供清潔燃料，需要多少清潔電力？我們的船隊現在一天要消耗一千萬噸船用燃油。如果替換成清潔燃料，我們預計需要220億千瓦時的清潔電力。這相當於2019年已安裝的太陽能和風能產生電力的10%。

And Maersk is 20 percent of the cargo shipping industry. So to fuel the cargo shipping industry alone would consume 50 percent of the entire installed base of green electricity. And that's just cargo shipping. In other words, we need a dramatic, exponential scale of installations of solar, of wind, of hydrogen production, of green fuel production, to solve this problem. We estimate that the total investment will be in the neighborhood of two trillion dollars, which, granted, is a lot of money.

馬士基集團占貨運行業的20%。所以單單為整個貨運行業提供燃料就需要消耗清潔電力產量的50%。而這只是貨運。換句話說，我們需要太陽能、風力、氫氣製造、清潔燃料製造設備以劇增、指數型增幅增長，才能解決這個問題。我們預計總投資大約為兩萬億美元，確實是一筆不小的數目。

But actually, it is the equivalent of four years of capital expenditure in the oil and gas industry today. I predict that for the next 10 years, the demand for green fuel will be significantly higher than the supply. Isn't that wonderful? Higher demand and supply normally means great business opportunities for everyone who chooses to participate. And it proves one of my key assumptions in today's world. It has become good business to invest in sustainable solutions. My conclusion is very simple.

但是實際上，這相當於現今油氣行業四年的資本支出。我預計在接下來的十年，清潔燃料會遠遠供不應求。很棒吧？更多的供需通常意味着給想要參與的人帶來更多的商機，也證明了我對當今世界的一個重要假設。投資可持續解決方案會是一筆好生意。我的結論很簡單。

We have the technologies needed to create a sustainable future. What we need is leadership, leadership to get us there faster. On the first of July, 2021, Maersk ordered the first vessel designed for green fuel. It will be delivered in 2023. Only two months later, we ordered another eight large vessels and made our first investments in green fuel production.

我們已經有了可以創造可持續未來的技術。我們需要的是領導，帶領我們更快地到達那裡。2021年的7月1日，馬士基集團訂購了第一艘為清潔燃料設計的集裝箱船。將在2023年交付。僅僅兩個月之後，我們又訂購了8艘巨型集裝箱船，也做了第一筆清潔燃料製造的投資。

What seemed to be an impossible dream only three years ago is becoming reality now, seven years ahead of the original plan. This is a leadership moment. It is time for us to pursue big dreams, even if they seem impossible. And it is time for us to collaborate around the critical details so we get to a sustainable future much, much faster. Thank you very much.

三年前看起來無法實現的夢想，現如今逐漸成真，比我們的原定計劃早了七年。這是一個領導力瞬間。我們追尋宏大理想的時刻到了，就算看似無法實現。我們就重要細節積極合作的時刻到了，以更早地到達一個可持續的未來。謝謝大家。