鑽石舞台

CO2 emissions from industrial processes are the main components of global greenhouse gas emissions. Based on analyzing the industrial activity level, technological progress, raw material substitution, and CO2 recycling ratio from the cement, aluminum, ammonia, steel, lime, and ferroalloy industries, this paper considers three scenarios, namely, national determined contribution (NDC), carbon mitigation scenario (CMS), and deep mitigation scenario (DMS), and systematically explores the CO2 emissions from future industrial processes as well as relevant cumulative emissions, emission sources, mitigation potentials, and mitigation sources in China. The results demonstrate that CO2 emissions of the six main industrial processes can be continuously and significantly reduced in China. In the scenarios, compared with the 2020 level (1448 million metric tons of CO2), the CO2 emissions can be reduced by 71%, 82%, and 94%, respectively, in 2060, mainly owing to the reduction of the activity level, the adjustment of the product structure and the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) under the DMS scenario. This paper provides several major policy implications to reduce the CO2 emissions through adjusting the industrial structure and current lifestyles, improving the durability of industrial products and the management and technical levels, increasing the substitution ratio of low-carbon raw materials in industrial production, supporting innovative low-carbon technologies, the establishment and operation of the carbon market and carbon pricing mechanism, and further promoting the current 「leader」 system of energy-intensive industries.

作為工業過程碳排放最高的國家，我國在全球應對全球氣候變化中發揮着重要的作用。然而，目前我國工業過程碳排放缺乏深入系統的研究，尤其是未來排放趨勢。我國鋼鐵、水泥、原鋁、石灰和氨生產占全球生產總量的一半以上，所以面向2020-2060我國工業過程碳減排的多情景模擬對形成未來的碳排放路徑和解決溫室氣體減排具有十分重要的意義。當前我國工業過程碳排放估算因活動數據、碳排放因子選擇和估算結果的不確定性範圍導致存在諸多局限。我國多數工業行業正面臨產能達峰和產能過剩，未來工業產品產量勢必迎來下降趨勢，但是下降的程度和產品結構存在很大不確定性。

因此，本研究提出以下問題（1）來自中國工業過程的碳排放歷史數據如何？（2）來自工業過程排放的關鍵驅動力是什麼？（3）未來排放趨勢會怎樣？（4）減排潛力和來源分布如何？（5）如何核算不確定性範圍？基於可行性更強的IPCC的2級方法，本研究具體核算了貢獻了工業過程碳排放97%的六個主要產業及其他產業。以碳排放活動水平和排放因子為主要因素，引入兩個參數：（1）考慮生產技術類型、管理水平、技術進步和原材料替代未來變化的修正係數（2）CO2排放回收利用比率來修正低碳模式下工業活動的碳排放因子，設置三種不同程度減排目標的情景，從而建立未來工業過程碳排放預測模型。

本研究主要貢獻在於建立了涵蓋六大主要來源的我國工業過程碳排放多情景模擬模型，而且多情景模擬和不確定性分析綜合考慮了多個未來需求的影響因素，創新地結合IPCC2級方法與國家層面排放因子，來降低關鍵因素和排放結果的不確定性，從而提高核算的準確度。

原文圖2 工業過程的碳排放分布（NDC：國家自主貢獻，CMS：碳減排情景，DMS：深度減排情景）

原文表3 工業過程碳排放及不確定性

原文圖3 各個工業過程碳減排潛力和來源

原文圖4 各行業工業過程碳排放的碳捕獲存儲（CCS）潛力