鑽石舞台

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Leaders| The Trump effect

特朗普效應

中期選舉後的美國與美式民主均得到鞏固

除了周身毛病，前總統特朗普還老是失掉選票

Shortly before the midterm elections, Donald Trump held a rally in Ohio. 「Our country is becoming third-world,」 he told voters. Later he hinted—is threatened a better word?—that he would soon announce he was running for president again. What could possibly go wrong for a party with such a figurehead? Or for one whose primary voters are so keen to relitigate the 2020 election that they chose a slate of candidates in key Senate seats chiefly for being the true keepers of the Trump flame?

就在中期選舉前不久，美國前總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在俄亥俄州舉行了一場助選集會，他告訴台下選民： 「美國就要變成第三世界國家了」。隨後，他暗示（或許「揚言」更符合實情）將在不久後正式宣布再次競選總統。若他參選，這位事實黨魁又將給共和黨帶來哪些困局呢？畢竟，該黨的多數選民不惜將關鍵的參議員席位交給所謂的特朗普信徒，只為對2020年的美國大選結果再次提起起訴。

Quite a lot, it turns out. The most important result of the 2022 midterms, for America and for the West, is that Mr Trump and his way of doing politics came out of them diminished.

事實證明，共和黨遭遇的困局還真不少。於美國和整個西方世界而言，2022中期選舉帶來的最重要影響便是削弱了特朗普參政議政的能力。

There are no blowout wins in American politics any more. When a party claims that America is theirs, based on how a few thousand votes break in a country of 330m, it is wise to raise an eyebrow and avoid overinterpreting the result. The president’s party nearly always loses seats in the midterms: there have been only three exceptions to this pattern since the civil war ended in 1865. Voters seem to like divided government, which has been the norm in Washington since the 1970s. They punish any party that holds majorities in both chambers of Congress and the presidency, as Barack Obama found in 2010, Mr Trump found in 2018 and therefore Joe Biden’s team must have expected this year. Neither party is currently capable of holding on to a commanding majority of the kind that once allowed them to pursue grand legislative programmes in Washington.

如今，想在美國政治選舉中大獲全勝已是難事。美國人口已達3.3億，若看到某個政黨僅憑數千選票的微弱優勢就揚言勝券在握，應持訝異態度，理性看待結果。通常來說，執政黨在中期選舉時總要失掉一些席位，自1865年美國內戰結束以來便一直如此，僅有過三次例外。此外，自1970年以來，兩黨分治是美國政治的常態，而這似乎正如選民所願。如果一個政黨同時拿下了總統以及參眾兩院，選民們就會開始倒向另一個黨派，巴拉克·奧巴馬（Barack Obama)和特朗普分別在2010、2018的中期選舉中遇到此類情況。因此，現任總統喬·拜登（Joe Biden）及其團隊應當早已預計到了這一點。目前，兩黨都無法占據壓倒性優勢，也就沒法像之前一樣通過占據絕對多數來推動國會通過大規模法案。

On the Democratic side there are many explanations for this. It is hard to boast about increased federal spending when many voters suspect that Democrats had a hand in raising inflation above 8%. The Democratic Party seems perennially befuddled about what exactly to propose on crime or immigration. Because they are fixated on the weirdness and the threats to democracy posed by many Republicans, Democrats tend to overlook how strange voters think they are. A poll commissioned by Third Way, a centrist Democratic think-tank, shortly before the election found that voters question whether the party’s candidates share basic American attitudes towards patriotism and hard work. When asked which party is more extreme, the average voter replies that Democrats are.

從民主黨角度來看，這其中的原因有很多。當眾多選民懷疑民主黨人和飆升至8%的通脹脫不了干係時，民主黨很難再吹噓聯邦政府增加了開支。在犯罪和移民問題上到底應該有何提議，民主黨似乎一直稀里糊塗。民主黨人的關注點偏了，他們把重心放在一眾共和黨人對民主制度構成的威脅上，所以選民們認為民主黨人行為怪異，而他們往往沒有注意到這一點。此次大選前不久，民主黨中間派智庫「第三條路」（Third Way）委託進行了一項民意調查，據調查結果顯示，選民質疑該黨候選人對愛國主義和辛勤工作的基本態度是否與美國民眾高度統一。當被問及哪個黨派更極端時，選民們的普遍回答是民主黨。

That ought to have been a gift to Republicans in a midterm year. Yet the party doesn’t have any better ideas on how to tackle America’s problems, and has quite a few for making them worse. Elected Republicans let the country down by trying to wriggle out of rejecting Mr Trump’s claims about the 2020 election. By doing so they also robbed their party of a chance to rethink and rebuild itself after its defeat, which is what parties normally do. Mr Trump is still nominally the chief Republican. He has an iron grip on the party’s berserker faction. Yet after this week’s vote, he looks more vulnerable than at any time since January 6th 2021, when many Americans thought this time he had gone too far.

值此中期選舉年，上述情形對於共和黨來說本應是天賜良機。然而，共和黨也沒有更好的法子來解決美國面臨的問題，倒是有不少餿主意讓局勢進一步惡化。當選的共和黨人本應斥責特朗普關於2020大選（舞弊）的言論，但他們沒有這麼做，這令美國人感到失望。通常，某個政黨在大選失敗後會反思並重整旗鼓，而共和黨的行為讓其機會盡失。特朗普仍然是共和黨名義上的第一人。他牢牢控制着黨內的極端派系。本周選舉塵埃落定之後，特朗普的地位將更加岌岌可危，比2021年1月6日那次事件的負面影響更甚，當時美國人民覺得他在衝擊國會山一事中的所作所為太過線了。

注釋：2021年1月6日指美國國會暴亂事件。

That presents an opportunity. Mr Trump can profit from breaking things. Many voters want a fighter, and refusing to concede and inciting a riot is proof of pugilism. After this week’s vote the suspicion that Mr Trump is, in fact, just a loser will be much harder for him to overcome. And that is what his record points to. In 2020 he was the first incumbent since Jimmy Carter to follow a president from the other party and then lose. In 2018 the Republicans lost 41 seats in the House under the Trump banner (Democrats may have lost only a handful this week). Even at his moment of greatest triumph, in 2016, he lost the popular vote and only narrowly beat a candidate who was trying to follow a two-term president from her own party, something which rarely happens. Now 2022 can be added to this less-than-stellar streak.

機會來了。誠然，特朗普可以從混亂中獲利——許多選民想要一個鬥士，而拒絕讓步和煽動暴亂是拳擊手才會做的事。本周投票之後，人們不禁會懷疑特朗普實際上只是一個失敗者，這樣的帽子將難以摘除。這也完全符合他的歷史戰績。2020年大選落敗，特朗普成為自吉米•卡特（Jimmy Carter）以後首位從對手黨里接任，但卻未連任的總統。2018年，在特朗普麾下，共和黨在眾議院失去了41個席位（而民主黨本周可能只失去了少量席位）。2016年，特朗普收穫了自己（政治生涯）的最大勝利，然而他沒能贏得普選票，面對已經執政兩屆的民主黨推出的候選人希拉里，他的優勢非常微弱，這並不常見。現在，在他不太成功的選舉記錄上，2022年的中期選舉又添了濃墨重彩的一筆。

His handpicked candidates turned winnable Senate races into nail-biters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis, a probable rival, won by roughly 20 points. Two Republican candidates for governor closely associated with Trumpism—Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tim Michels in Wisconsin—both repeated the lost-cause story about 2020 and vowed to use their influence over election administration to make sure no Republican presidential candidate would lose again in their state. It was they who lost. In Michigan and Nevada Republican candidates who swore the 2020 election was stolen ran for secretary of state so that they might oversee the next one. They lost, too. In Colorado Lauren Boebert, who has flirted with the QAnon conspiracy, may lose the safest of seats.

共和黨本可在亞利桑那州、喬治亞州、內華達州和賓夕法尼亞州的參議院席位之爭中獲勝，而特朗普精心挑選的候選人讓情況變得十分棘手。與此同時，特朗普的潛在黨內競爭對手——佛羅里達州州長羅恩 · 德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）贏了大約20個百分點。高度擁護特朗普主義的兩名共和黨州長候選人——賓夕法尼亞州的道格 · 馬斯特里亞諾（Doug Mastriano）和威斯康星州的蒂姆 · 米歇爾斯（Tim Michels）——都重蹈了2020年的覆轍，他們曾誓言要利用自己對選舉管理的影響力，確保不會再有共和黨總統候選人在紅州敗北。他們沒有做到。在密歇根州和內華達州，宣稱2020年大選果實遭竊取的共和黨候選人競選了州務卿之位，以便監督下一屆大選，皆敗下陣來。在科羅拉多州，曾與陰謀論組織QAnon 眉來眼去的勞倫•博伯特（Lauren Boebert）可能會丟掉無法撼動的席位。

It turns out that common sense can still sometimes beat partisan reflexes after all. At the margin voters distinguish between good and bad candidates, which matters when the margins are thin. American democracy seems healthier and more secure as a result.

事實證明，有時常識可以戰勝黨派的反應。中間選民會區分候選人的好壞，這在票數差額較小時很重要。美國的民主似乎因此更健康，更安全。

Where does this leave the country? Alas, for the next two years Congress is likely to become mired in theatrical showdowns over funding the government and pointless investigations into the business dealings of Hunter Biden, the president’s son. America’s real problems will go unanswered.

美國未來將何去何從？唉，接下來的兩年，對於政府經費和總統之子亨特·拜登商業交易這種無意義的調查問題上，國會很可能會陷入戲劇性的攤牌對峙。美國真正的問題將無法得以解決。

注釋：showdown：a big meeting, argument, or fight that finally settles a disagreement between people or proves who is the best.

Given that sterile prospect, it is in America’s and the Republican Party’s interest to move on from Mr Trump and look forward. But perhaps surprisingly, given that he has just presided over a creditable midterm performance, there are also doubtswhether Mr Biden should be the Democratic nominee in 2024. His administration has, like any presidency, got plenty of things wrong. But by arming Ukraine and putting policies in place to drastically reduce carbon emissions, it has got two important things right. Now, also for the good of party and country, Mr Biden might rethink what he does next.

鑑於這種無望的前景，擺脫特朗普，向前看符合共和黨以及整個美國的利益。但或許讓人驚訝的是，儘管在拜登的領導下，此次民主黨的中期選舉表現值得稱讚，但人們依舊在質疑拜登是否應代表民主黨謀求連任。拜登同任何一位總統一樣，在任期間做了很多錯事，但他還是做對了兩件事：武裝支援烏克蘭和推行大幅減少碳排放政策。現在，同樣出於民主黨和國家的利益，拜登或將重新考慮接下來該何去何從。

Walking away from power is a noble American tradition that is almost as old as the republic. By following it, Mr Biden could deny Mr Trump the 2020 rematch he so clearly craves. Republicans in Congress might be a bit less obsessed with blocking anything that could look like a presidential win. And Democrats might make rebuilding democracy more than a self-serving talking point. With his achievements and his party’s relative success in these elections Mr Biden has an opportunity to depart on his own terms. He should use it.

主動讓權是深植於美國傳統的一項美德，從合眾國建國之初一直傳承至今。如果拜登主動放棄連任，那麼特朗普朝思暮想的2020對決重演也會就此落空。長期以來，共和黨認為支持民主黨的提案都是為拜登總統做政績，而另一邊高喊「民主」的空口號也多是給自己拉票。一旦意識到拜登將不再尋求連任，逢「拜」必反的共和黨人勢必會有所收斂，而民主黨人則可以開始真正重建民主制度。帶着自己的政績，以及自己政黨此次的戰績，拜登完全可以選擇以自己的方式主動離場——而且，他理應如此。

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