作者:方奕/黃維馳/郭胤含/田開軒
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【報告導讀】:微觀交易結構上,滬深兩市成交額邊際抬升,行業成交集中度邊際回升;微觀交易行為上,兩融和ETF資金淨流入,北上資金淨流出。從倉位上看,各類基金倉位整體下降,均衡類小幅加倉。
1)市場「賺錢能力」回升:本期A股收益中位數為6.42%,91.89%股票上漲。2)市場交易熱度邊際抬升。近期滬深兩市成交額邊際回升。結構上,從換手率歷史分位看,消費者服務、醫藥、綜合金融板塊換手率分位數居高位,消費者服務換手率分位數超90%。通信、傳媒板塊。3)行業和個股層面成交額集中度邊際回升。本期行業和個股層面成交額集中度邊際回升。4)上證指數擁擠度上行。基於我們的研究顯示,上證指數、中證500、滬深300指數擁擠度均上行。
▶投資者微觀交易行為:槓桿資金淨流入
1)公募基金:新成立基金份額小幅上升;從業績表現上看,偏股型基金收益中位數為5.91%,97.94%的基金淨值實現上漲。從倉位上看,各類基金倉位整體下降,均衡類小幅加倉;2)私募基金:發行數量邊際抬升;3)銀行理財子產品:基礎資產中對權益資產的參與度小幅上行,「破淨」比例邊際抬升,贖回壓力抬升;4)兩融資金:資金淨流入,流入集中於醫藥、計算機、新能源版塊;5)北上資金:資金淨流出,消費板塊淨流出最大。其中,博弈型資金轉入為出,配置型資金持續流出;6)ETF:ETF資金淨流入,寬基綜合淨流入最多;7)資金需求:IPO發行規模、定增規模邊際回落,解禁規模回落,產業資本淨減持。▶風險提示:海外貨幣政策收緊超預期、全球疫情形勢超預期惡化、國內經濟下行加速、地緣政治不確定性
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國君策略·周論
【國君策略|周論】真正的趨勢:製造中「逆流而上」的力量
【國君策略|周論】步步為營
【國君策略|周論】打好游擊戰
【國君策略|周論】烏雲的金邊
【國君策略 | 周論】徐徐圖之,慢就是快
【國君策略|周論】枕戈待旦
【國君策略|周論】「確定性」的回潮
專題精選回顧
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負責領域:大勢研判/行業比較
執業編號:S0880520120005
陳熙淼:聯席首席策略分析師
負責領域:行業比較/大勢研判
執業編號:S0880520120004
黃維馳:資深策略分析師
負責領域:行業比較/大勢研判
執業編號:S0880520110005
蘇徽:資深策略分析師
負責領域:主題策略/行業比較
執業編號:S0880516080006
唐文卿:資深策略分析師
負責領域:主題策略/行業比較
執業編號:S0880522100002
郭胤含:策略分析師負責領域:大勢研判/行業比較執業編號:S0880122080038
張逸飛:策略分析師
負責領域:大勢研判/行業比較執業編號:S0880122070056
負責領域:行業比較/專題研究執業編號:S0880122070045