鑽石舞台

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is an important index for assessing the coordinated devel-opment relationship between population and water resources. The quantitative evaluation of WRCC can provide an important basis for water resource regulation and sustainable economic and social development. Based on the statistical data of cities and counties in the Great Dunhuang Region (GDR), and taking counties as the basic units, this study quantitatively analyzed the WRCC and carrying status of the GDR under different water inflow conditions and policy constraints from 2010 to 2017. The study revealed three main trends. (1) From 2010 to 2017, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year, from 343700, 315900 and 291100 people to 458700, 415400 and 375600 people in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. (2) Under policy constraints, the WRCC of the GDR increased year by year from 309400 people in 2010 to 412400 people in 2017. Based on future estimates, the WRCC of the GDR are expected to be 326600 people in 2020 and 341200 people in 2030. (3) From 2010 to 2017, the water resources carrying index of the GDR was decreasing, and it decreased from 1.05, 1.14 and 1.24 to 0.80, 0.88 and 0.97 in normal, dry and extremely dry years, respectively. The carrying status changed from critical over-load to balanced. Although the WRCC and the carrying status of the GDR had significantly improved by 2017, the overall upper limit of the carrying capacity is not high. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in order to maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources in the GDR.

水資源承載力是衡量區域內人水關係協調發展的重要評判指標。定量評價水資源承載力，可為有效調控水資源、 維持經濟社會可持續發展提供重要依據。基於大敦煌地區各市縣統計數據，以分縣為基本單元，定量分析了 2010–2017 年不同來水條件和不同政策約束下大敦煌地區水資源承載力和承載狀態。結果表明：（1）2010–2017 年大敦煌地區水資源承載力逐年增加， 平水年、枯水年和特枯年條件下的承載力分別從 34.37 萬人、31.59 萬人和 29.11 萬人增加到 45.87 萬人、41.54 萬人和 37.56 萬人。（2）不同政策約束下，2010–2017 年大敦煌地區水資源承載力逐年增加，從 2010 年的 30.94 萬人增加到 2017 年的 41.24 萬人；預估 2020 年和 2030 年分別可承載人口 32.66 萬人和 34.12 萬人。（3）2010–2017 年大敦煌地區水資源承載指數持續減小，平水年、 枯水年和特枯年條件下承載指數分別從 1.05、1.14 和 1.24 降到 0.80、0.88 和 0.97，人水關係均從臨界超載轉變為平衡有餘。大敦煌地區水資源承載力顯著提升，承載狀態顯著改善，但整體承載上限並不高，應着力提高水資源利用效率，以維持大敦煌地區水資源的可持續利用。